Decision 2020: UNewHaven makes predictions about the upcoming 2020 election

The 2020 election may seem far off, but for the University of New Haven campus community, it’s time to make predictions. Almost everyone has an opinion about who should win the presidential election, but it’s lesser-known who will win.

For years, political scientists have been coming up with different formulas for predicting the winner of U.S elections.

“Mathematical election predictions can seem both tantalizing and frustratingly opaque,” said data analyst David Byler in a Washington Post article. “People want to know what will happen, especially in an election as consequential as this one, but they often don’t understand how the people who build these predictive tools reach their conclusions.”

University of New Haven professor Chris Haynes thinks that former vice president Joseph Biden will win the election in November “by a comfortable popular and electoral margin.”

“A number of polls have consistently indicated that for a few months now that Americans have calcified in their strong opposition to President Trump,” Haynes said.

Haynes said that Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and now that President Donald Trump is more known, people are less likely to vote for him.
Fellow Political Science Professor Patricia Crouse said, “It is too early for predictions and one thing the 2016 race taught us is that relying on polls to predict the outcome of the presidential race can be disastrous,”

Crouse added, “The outcome of this election will be determined by voter turnout, not just numbers, but which groups specifically turn out to vote and for whom.”

On-campus students also have predictions about who will win the upcoming election.
“I think that Joe Biden will win the election because I feel that the new generation of voters are much more radical and they are looking for change,” said Avery Anderson, a freshman health sciences major, “and Joe Biden matches those views.”

However, Ana Guillet, an undecided freshman says, “I believe that Trump will win by a narrow margin.”

“I also think that the results will be similar to 2016 in the way that Trump will win the electoral vote, but not the popular one,” said Guillet. “A lot of my prediction has to do with the recent events going on and how we need more law and order to fix the chaos.”

“This race, like the 2014, 2016 and 2018 elections, has a clear front-runner. But the models don’t and can’t guarantee that he’ll be the winner. Ordinary voters and political strategists should act accordingly,” said Byler.